Emissions tracking

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Expand view Topic review: Emissions tracking

Emissions tracking

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Apr 2018, 07:46

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/25/co2-is-regularly-exceeding-410-parts-per-million-for-first-time-in-human-history/

Nice gif from there:
Image

We just keep emitting, don’t we? Shitting in our own nest.

Historically:
Image

That is some hockey stick!

But as you can see in the graphic below, post 2016 cooling doesn’t look very cool at all. In contrast, most of the world is still in the grips of record heat. And so long as atmospheric greenhouse gas levels remain so high and continue to rise, this state is unlikely to change. Inevitably, unless the build-up of greenhouse gasses through fossil fuel burning slackens, more global record hot years are on the way.

Image
(March of 2018 was 0.89 C warmer than NASA’s 20th Century baseline or 1.11 C warmer than 1880s averages. Image source: NASA.)




2017 was not an El Nino year (a weak La Nina developed late in the year) yet was hardly cooler than 2016 which had a big El Nino. Mostly the year after an El Nino year is rather cooler than the El Nino year. Now, in 2018 we see the world is still mostly hot. Remarkable.

2018, after a weak La Nina is still sixth hottest year.

The above is March this year. You can see Europe was cold but the Arctic was warm. We have seen strong Arctic warming in February now in NH winter 2016/17 and 2017/18, back to back warming. Previously this century there were weaker winter warmings in the Arctic but with years in between. Clearly a trend has started and now strengthened, all driven by AGW and its effects on the Jet Stream, subpolar weather system changes (the warm air pushing into the Arctic comes from high pressure ridge in Siberia) and the Polar Vortex—we have had a split Polar Vortex this year.

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