The downward trend in demand and price for coal

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Expand view Topic review: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Re: The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Post by HBS Guy » 20 Dec 2017, 08:45

Coal use inexorably declining:

Global demand for coal slumped 1.9 per cent in 2016, a record drop in demand that is not expected to change until 2022.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Coal 2017 report said 5.36 billion tonnes of coal was used last year, the second year in row consumption dropped.

That is a combined total of 4.2 per cent over 2015 and 2016, which according the IEA is larger then the last two-year slump in the early 1990s.

The agency forecasts that by 2022 global coal demand will be 5.53 billion tonnes, which means total demand will have stagnated for more than a decade.

Coal is Australia's second largest export earner after iron ore and has weathered a difficult few years before an unexpected and sustained spot-price rise over the last 18 months.

The IEA director for energy markets Keisuke Sadamori said global energy systems were rapidly evolving and biting into coal's traditional markets.

"There is much more diversity in the fuel mix; fracked natural gas, especially cheaper fracked gas in the United States.

"And costs are reducing for new technologies in both energy efficiency and renewable energy.

"Despite that, demand will remain essentially the same for the next five years.

"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022.

"We expect coal-fired generation to increase by 1.2 per cent a year until 2022 although its share of the power mix will fall to just below 36 per cent by then."

Eventually renewable energy will be so much cheaper than coal its use will decline precipitously. Rootop solar + battery has already sounded the death knell of coal fired electricity generation. Windfarms on the oceans will drop demand for coal precipitously. In the face of cost differential there is no way coal is going to resume its dominance.

Developments like this give me hope catastrophic AGW can be averted. Economics will win out but it better do so a lot quicker!

The downward trend in demand and price for coal

Post by HBS Guy » 19 Dec 2017, 10:55

Worldwide coal demand has suffered its biggest-ever fall as the global revolution under way in energy eats into the market.

Unfortunately, can’t access the link. Might have to —ugh!—buy a national shit sheet.

But renewable energy is now cheaper than coal fired energy and this will only accelerate as, e.g. more wide–ocean wind farms are built: wind is stronger and more constant on the ocean than on the sea. SA needs to stop faffing about and ask for tenders for windfarms to be installed in the Great Australian Bight and on Backstairs Passage.