New Ice Age

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Expand view Topic review: New Ice Age

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 03 Mar 2020, 11:04

Clearly, 2019 really was the second hottest year. It was second hottest to 2016 which was a super El Nino year! 2019 was not an El Nino year and was nearly as hot as 2016. Shows how fast the globe is warming. You can also see this from the fact that 2018, a weak La Nina year, was warmer than super El Nino year 1998—just 20 years earlier!

This ice age fantasy shows just how desperate some people are to wish away awkward facts, like AGW.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 03 Mar 2020, 10:57

We see that the new Cycle is predicted to be a bit stronger than Cycle 24. So no GSM even possible for 11 years, more like 22 years, two cycles.

All the publishing of local weather reports will not change that. Any cold, even record cold, can be traced to the Jet Streams being weakened by The Arctic warming faster than any other place on the planet thus lowering temperature differences either side of about 45°N—temperature and the related pressure differences drive winds.

In the NH the weakened Jet Stream hits obstacles like the Greenhouse Plateau and buckles, forming south-facing bows and north facing waves. The bows guide Arctic air south from the Arctic, this brings blizzards, cold etc to parts America, Europe and Asia. In the southern hemisphere there are no such obstacles so we do not get the huge cold blasts seen in mid latitudes in the NH. But we do still get some cold air (like the one that brought snow to the east coast as far north as southern Queensland. Of course, Dubyne called this a sign of the GSM/Ice age, it really was a sign of the opposite, of AGW. We have also seen some super cold fronts, esp near South Island of NZ. These can make it north because the southern Jet Stream is weaker and disorganised. No blizzards tho, thank goodness.

Overall, taking measurements and calculating proper global average temperature we see the globe is warming:

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 03 Mar 2020, 10:42

There will not be a Little Ice Age soon:

Thus, a new Grand Solar Minimum would only serve to offset a few years of warming caused by human activities.
What does this mean? The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum.


https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 29 Feb 2020, 04:40

Apparently I need to apologise to Dubyne because Melbourne had a cool summer. I do not apologise to doxxers you doxxer! Nor do I apologise for the fucking weather, stupid idea!

Most of the country was hot and Dubyne, just a grifter, would not have predicted any of that.

Of course, Booby has made ZERO attempt to work out why parts of southern Australia had a cool summer, what weather systems were involved. Lots of wind from the south I noticed and those are cooling. Thank heavens for a cool February! We had the air conditioner switched on a lot before February tho.

Ever notice Booby does not live up to his signature? You know, needing extraordinary evidence? Never provides any!

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 26 Feb 2020, 11:16

Little Booby is feeling rather put upon. He lisped this earlier today:

Monk is a fool.
David DuByne predicted the dry
weather which caused the drought
and bush fires.


Of course, you do not go far wrong predicting drought in Australia. Dubyne knows nothing about weather, meteorology nor science so he would not have predicted what happened. Besides which long term weather or climate forecasting is impossible: too chaotic. Weather is not forecast for more than 2 weeks and climate is forecast using an ensemble of models. So, no, Dubyne did not predict the heat and drought—that was all a lie, right Booby?

66% of summer crops is not a 79% decrease in the wheat harvest, is it Booby? Did you either not notice the difference or are you lying again? Do you not know when wheat is harvested?

And there is no GSM now or any time soon, sorry, that is a Dubyne (&Co, Ice Age Farmer, DiamondDave etc etc) lie that he has sold to those afraid of AGW and the changes it will bring. Are you such a coward, preferring to believe in make believe, in fairytales? Or are you the “real man” you say you are and willing to face up to AGW? I think you are a snivelling coward and a scumbag willing to pass my personal details to your idol, the grifter Dubyne.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 25 Feb 2020, 21:15

Ooooooohhh! Booby changed text from his idol Dubyne, quoting now the 66% figure for summer crops where the grifter had said 77% of the wheat crop.

If you have to do so much bloody fiddling does it not show that Dubyne just talks crap?

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 25 Feb 2020, 18:31

Booby is getting desperate, saying I agreed with the liar and scammer/grifter Dubyne. Dubyne was talking about wheat, not summer crops. And loss due to heat tho you were not bright enough to pick that up, were you? Gullible numpty!

Dubyne is getting desperate, Booby and is talking more crap than he used to. Northern Hemisphere had a nice mild winter, even Holland was well above zero. Then no sign of a GSM tho it is “deepening” according to the grifter.

Look!

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 25 Feb 2020, 07:57

Looks like the Booby–Dubyne love affair is on again.

What a dump of an MRB! Ajax posting complete shite about the Mann v Ball court case, lee of course joining in—no ruling or demand by the court for Mann to disclose data was ever made. The data is freely available on a server and has been for ages.

Dubyne posts a lie about our wheat harvest, 79% loss. Bullshit, this is ABARE:

Area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have decreased by 71% in 2019–20 to 143,000 hectares. Production is forecast to fall by 77% to around 292,000 tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 82% in 2019–20 to 61,000 hectares because of low supplies of irrigation water and insufficient levels of soil moisture to plant dryland cotton. Planted area is estimated to be the lowest since 1978–79 when it was 50,000 hectares. Production is forecast to decline by 72% to around 135,000 tonnes of lint and 191,000 tonnes of seed. The average yield is forecast to rise from last season because almost all cotton crops this season are irrigated.

Rice production is forecast to remain low at around 54,000 tonnes because of low water allocations and high water prices.

Harvesting of 2019–20 winter crops is largely complete and estimated production remains largely unchanged from the forecast ABARES published in the December 2019 edition of Australian crop report. Higher than expected barley and canola production is estimated to have offset lower than expected wheat production.

Australian winter crop production is estimated to have decreased by 5% in 2019–20 to just under 29 million tonnes. Wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 12% to 15.2 million tonnes, barley production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 8.9 million tonnes and canola production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 2.3 million tonnes. Amongst other crops, chickpea production is estimated to have remained largely unchanged at 281,000 tonnes and oats production is estimated to have increased by 1% to 900,000 tonnes.

Winter crop area is estimated to have increased slightly in 2019–20 to 18 million hectares.


https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities/australian-crop-report/overview

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 18 Feb 2020, 19:00

Does chitin have carbonates in it or just polysaccharides?

Re: New Ice Age

Post by Dax » 14 Feb 2020, 15:18

Here's some fake news that will boost the claim of a new ice age, told you it was coming much soon than anyone anticipated. :rofl :rofl :rofl

This year may see even bigger disasters, especially if a number of glaciers collapse during the northern summer. Then when the next southern summer comes along, we may see one of Antarctica's biggest glacial ice sheets slide into the sea. The rate of movement to the ocean off all ice sheets and glaciers are accelerating rapidly, which means sea rises of well over 2 metres may occur within the next couple of years and then the shit will l hit the fan for everyone.
They are going to build an all weather all seasons landing strip on Casey station, because there are now area's where there is no snow all year round.

Where I live, the sea temp at this time of the year was always around 12-14deg C, now it's 18-20deg C. All the kelp beds have died, the crayfish have soft shells from the growing acidity of the ocean and many fish species have disappeared.

"The Antarctic has registered a temperature of more than 20C (68F) for the first time on record, prompting fears of climate instability in the world’s greatest repository of ice."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ime-record

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 14 Feb 2020, 14:55

Judith Curry has made a prediction for 2020-2040: gonna cool.

Of course, she predicted that for 2000-2020 too. She reckons due to get more vulcanism. You can’t predict that.

Why do people believe in this crap?

Re: New Ice Age

Post by Aussie » 11 Feb 2020, 17:18

This is pissing me orf Monk. I log in...see a new post in Sand Pit, check it, and it is some climate stuff which belongs in the right place.

:mad

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 11 Feb 2020, 15:25

And Ajax just goes on and on repeating utter crap about the Mann/Ball case. Pathetic.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 11 Feb 2020, 14:26

Yup, when I bothered to read the comments of the cretins posting to a Dubyne monetised YouTube a fairly constant refrain was “We know something other people don’t.”

Yes, deniers do give governments the ability to just keep going down the fossil fuel burning path. That is why I battle them on Twitter, show denialism is not universal and has no science behind it.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by karlrand » 11 Feb 2020, 10:14

HBS Guy wrote:Humans began emitting CO2 and changing the climate thereby when cities and intensive agriculture started. Burning gigatons of fossil fuel decreased the oxygen content of the atmosphere slightly and boosted CO2 content hugely. You can see how that slowed the decrease in temperatures over the last 6000 years until the Industrial Revolution when temperatures rose at a rapid rate, 0.2°C per decade now.

Ice age now is little minds, frightened at what is happening, invent stories, GSM means Ice Age! to stop them being scared. World is still warming tho. A GSM will cause just the tiniest blip in the temperature record.

I suspect for a significant percent of those who deny global warming more is involved than an attempt to ignore a terrifying future. Our species has always had (and always will have?) a number of deluded individuals desperately wanting to believe they’re in possession of ’secret knowledge’ the rest of us can’t see. This time around it’s worse than anything like a flat earth theory. The power such idiocy hands to governments thinking only up to the next election threatens us all, even the denialists.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 11 Feb 2020, 09:33

Humans began emitting CO2 and changing the climate thereby when cities and intensive agriculture started. Burning gigatons of fossil fuel decreased the oxygen content of the atmosphere slightly and boosted CO2 content hugely. You can see how that slowed the decrease in temperatures over the last 6000 years until the Industrial Revolution when temperatures rose at a rapid rate, 0.2°C per decade now.

Ice age now is little minds, frightened at what is happening, invent stories, GSM means Ice Age! to stop them being scared. World is still warming tho. A GSM will cause just the tiniest blip in the temperature record.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 11 Feb 2020, 09:08

PhilPerth tries to inject some facts into the debate. But facts are not what is wanted there, feelings rule there.

Yes, Mann v Ball was still in the discovery stage. The judge took pity on Ball “an old, sick, irrelevant nobody” (Ball’s lawyers’ own words!) and terminated the case as judges can do when cases drag on too long. Terminated, not dismissed. No trial, no vindication for either party.

Mann’s data and computer code are here and have been since 2003:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/research/MANNETAL98/

One of the most pernicious lies about Mann is that he refuses to supply his data and code. The above link shows that that is false! A Mod should not allow lies to stand, over to you Booby!

Now to Valentina Zharkova, Professor of Mathematics at Northumbria University. She studied two cycles of the sun and thought she knew it all. She developed a simplistic model but when she tried to demonstrate it it did not hindcast known past GSMs. Her model is simplistic and worthless. There is a huge PubPeer thread (look up the “And then there’s Physics” blog run by Ken Rice—he devotes a few pages to the Zharkova saga and has a link to the Pubpeer thread.

Now to the ice age nonsense.

1. A GSM cools globally by 0.2°C tops (do some googling and you will find that I am, as always, right.)

2. AGW warms by 0.2°C per decade. Plenty of authoritative charts by NASA/NOAA/MetOffice/Japanese Met organisation etc.

So a GSM by itself cannot cause what is misleadingly termed a Little Ice Age.

So what did cause the LIA? This was pretty much a North America/Europe event, triggered by huge volcanic eruptions and maintained by increase in albedo, flow of cold meltwater from the Arctic entering the North Atlantic and stopping or slowing the Gulf Stream. Again, none of this would cool us now by enough to get anywhere near LIA conditions—and AGW will continue warming the globe a smidge under 0.2°C per decade.

There will not be another LIA again.

Not only that, there will likely not be a major ice age again. Milankovitch Cycles, perturbations in Earths orbit and inclination cause less insolation above 65°N so freezing the Arctic and causing major ice ages. However, Milankovitch Cycles are weak and only caused the ice ages when CO2 had dropped below 300ppm. It is currently 412ppm and climbing—no more regular major ice ages.

You watch Booby will be too gutless to post this. He has already lied about one of my posts in the last few hours.

Booby can read this then apologise for slandering me:
http://legendofpineridge.blogspot.com/2011/11/dr-michael-manns-data-is-available-on.html

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 10 Feb 2020, 17:24

Sore End aka Frank makes it the brainless trio.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 10 Feb 2020, 16:52

Here is my apology

“I am sorry you are brainless fuckwits Booby and Ajax. I would suggest a course in critical thinking for you two but you don’t actually think, do you?”

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 10 Feb 2020, 16:26

Booby says I am a follower of Mann, like the moron used to say I was an Al Gore fan. No evidence for either statement of course, Booby is not into thinking or evidence, just feelings.

Mann was not defeated by Ball—there was no actual fucking trial you zombie!

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 10 Feb 2020, 15:47

The willful ignorance blatantly displayed by that clown Ajax in OzPol is getting on my tits!

For FUCKS sake Ajax, Mann did not lose the case against Tim Ball: the case was still in discovery, not trial (get an adult to explain this) when the court took pity on “an old, sick, irrelevant fool” (the words of Ball’s lawyers!) and terminated the case. Mann had what he wanted—a retraction and an apology from the website that published Ball’s diatribe—and let the case drag on (easy as Ball had several long absences for medical procedures.

Nothing Mann had worked on or published was affected in any way. There was no trial, no judgement, a case that had dragged on too long was terminated because the judge took pity on Ball.

AGW was validated in 1949 in studies for the US Navy and Air Force!

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 06 Feb 2020, 17:54

Booby if you have donated to Dubyne I would see about getting that money back. You will never get back the time you wasted watching those stupid videos by the charlatan and reading the ill informed comments to them.

Don’t double down on that wasted time by believing another charlatan.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 06 Feb 2020, 17:50

Maybe Booby should read:
https://climatefeedback.org/we-are-not-heading-towards-a-mini-ice-age-contrary-to-claims-in-some-media/

and this:
https://www.livescience.com/amp/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html

and:
https://t.co/4hfhQYROQO?amp=1

Probably beyond his comprehension but he should stick to it, finish at least one of those articles.

The case for no mini ice age because of a GSM can be made fairly simply:

1. We are rather warmer now than during the Medieval Warm Period.

2. AGW is warming the globe at about 0.2°C per decade.

3. Cooling from MWP to LIA was no more than 0.5°C, not huge. The same cooling factors now would not take us back to LIA type temperatures—we have warmed 1.2°C since 1880, about 0.8°C of that since the end of the 1970s so that cooling would only take us back to the 1980s level temperature.

4. A GSM cools by 0.2°C tops—note from point 2 that AGW warms by that amount in a decade and will throughout a GSM.

5. A GSM is the sun emitting a little less UV. That would not stop AGW warming the globe. Deniers do not realise this but their heads are filled with nonsense from charlatans.

6. With heat from the oceans buffering any temporary cooling and AGW still going it is likely we wouldn’t even notice a GSM when one happens. That is unlikely to happen in the next 2-3 decades. When it happens AGS has warmed us by at least 3 x 0.2 = 0.6°C, even less likely an ice age will result.

Re: New Ice Age

Post by DonDeeHippy » 06 Feb 2020, 16:48

Aussie wrote:
HBS Guy wrote:No, this belongs in Sand Pit. It is not a serious thread, more for poking fun at the gullible idiot Booby.


An entire Thread....so one wanker can see it?

There are many threads on this forum just so someone can read it from OZ Pol :tweed

Re: New Ice Age

Post by HBS Guy » 06 Feb 2020, 16:32

Yeah.

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