Consequences of AGW

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Topic review

Expand view Topic review: Consequences of AGW

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 03 Sep 2018, 07:16

More on sea level rise:

Global sea-level budget 1993–present
WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group

Received: 13 Apr 2018

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts, an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1±0.3mmyr−1 and acceleration of 0.1mmyr−2 over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3mmyr−1 (1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 02 Sep 2018, 20:17

Carbon Brief @CarbonBrief More 27 Aug 2018
State of the climate: 2018 set to be fourth warmest year despite cooler start | @hausfath


Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 02 Sep 2018, 16:29

Sea level rise accelerating—this is from tide gauges:


See the two points of faster rise, 1933-7 and 1998-9.


Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 09:06

pinkeye wrote:IF you don't have a dwelling there, then you might as well forget fire issues.
Of course you need to manage weeds and other woody stuff, but if there is no recent history of bushfire, in your area, there is NO point in worrying about it.

If you aren't THERE there is nothing you can do, and different choices of plantings are most unlikely to have any beneficial effect. No person?
Let it burn, and fix it up afterwards.

Had another look at Google maps for my township.

There are big areas of trees to the east and a smaller block to the south. Both are about 10 minutes saunter from my block—call it a kilometre. Prevailing winds are northwest bit could easily get a southwest wind. Hmm even bigger area of bush across the river.

Could get hot embers from a big bushfire hit my house or garden or on blocks around me and start a grass fire. Hmmm what can be done.

A way to block gutters, fill them with water. Shutters on doors and windows (well, protect doors somehow.) Plantings of succulents to suppress grass fires, enough I can extinguish them with a hose. Make sure the swales are well wet. No organic mulch close to the house—gravel mulches or use ground covering plants. Keep trees away from house—slight problem, lemon and peach trees need shelter, i.e. be close to the house.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 08:53

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasing at an accelerating rate, primarily due to fossil fuel combustion and land use change. A substantial fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is absorbed by the oceans, resulting in a reduction of seawater pH. Continued acidification may over time have profound effects on marine biota and biogeochemical cycles. Although the physical and chemical basis for ocean acidification is well understood, there exist few field data of sufficient duration, resolution, and accuracy to document the acidification rate and to elucidate the factors governing its variability. Here we report the results of nearly 20 years of time-series measurements of seawater pH and associated parameters at Station ALOHA in the central North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii. We document a significant long-term decreasing trend of −0.0019 ± 0.0002 y−1 in surface pH, which is indistinguishable from the rate of acidification expected from equilibration with the atmosphere. Superimposed upon this trend is a strong seasonal pH cycle driven by temperature, mixing, and net photosynthetic CO2 assimilation. We also observe substantial interannual variability in surface pH, influenced by climate-induced fluctuations in upper ocean stability. Below the mixed layer, we find that the change in acidification is enhanced within distinct subsurface strata. These zones are influenced by remote water mass formation and intrusion, biological carbon remineralization, or both. We suggest that physical and biogeochemical processes alter the acidification rate with depth and time and must therefore be given due consideration when designing and interpreting ocean pH monitoring efforts and predictive models.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 06:36

The global CO2-carbonic acid-carbonate system of seawater, although certainly a well-researched topic of interest in the past, has risen to the fore in recent years because of the environmental issue of ocean acidification (often simply termed OA).

Despite much previous research, there remain pressing questions about how this most important chemical system of seawater operated at the various time scales of the deep time of the Phanerozoic Eon (the past 545 Ma of Earth’s history), interglacial-glacial time, and the Anthropocene (the time of strong human influence on the behaviour of the system) into the future of the planet. One difficulty in any analysis is that the behaviour of the marine carbon system is not only controlled by internal processes in the ocean, but it is intimately linked to the domains of the atmosphere, continental landscape, and marine carbonate sediments.

For the deep-time behaviour of the system, there exists a strong coupling between the states of various material reservoirs resulting in an homeostatic and self-regulating system. As a working hypothesis, the coupling produces two dominant chemostatic modes: (Mode I), a state of elevated atmospheric CO2, warm climate, and depressed seawater Mg∕Ca and SO4∕Ca mol ratios, pH (extended geologic periods of ocean acidification), and carbonate saturation states (W), and elevated Sr concentrations, with calcite and dolomite as dominant minerals found in marine carbonate sediments (Hothouses, the calcite-dolomite seas), and (Mode II), a state of depressed atmospheric CO2, cool climate, and elevated seawater Mg∕Ca and SO4/Ca ratios, pH, and carbonate saturation states, and low Sr concentrations, with aragonite and high magnesian calcites as dominant minerals found in marine carbonate sediments (Icehouses, the aragonite seas).

Investigation of the impacts of deglaciation and anthropogenic inputs on the CO2–H2O–CaCO3 system in global coastal ocean waters from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: the last great continental glaciation of the Pleistocene Epoch, 18,000 year BP) to the year 2100 shows that with rising sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, the carbonate system of coastal ocean water changed and will continue to change significantly. We find that 6,000 Gt of C were emitted as CO2 to the atmosphere from the growing coastal ocean from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time because of net heterotrophy (state of gross respiration exceeding gross photosynthesis) and net calcification processes.

Shallow-water carbonate accumulation alone from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time could account for ~24 ppmv of the ~100 ppmv rise in atmospheric CO2, lending some support to the ‘‘coral reef hypothesis’’. In addition, the global coastal ocean is now, or soon will be, a sink of atmospheric CO2, rather than a source. The pHT (pH values on the total proton scale) of global coastal seawater has decreased from ~8.35 to ~8.18 and the CO3 2- ion concentration declined by ~19% from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time.

In comparison, the decrease in coastal water pHT from the year 1900 to 2000 was ~8.18 to ~8.08 and is projected to decrease further from about ~8.08 to ~7.85 between 2000 and 2100. During these 200 years, the CO3 2- ion concentration will fall by ~ 45%. This decadal rate of decline of the CO3 2- ion concentration in the Anthropocene is 214 times the average rate of decline for the entire Holocene!

In terms of the modern problem of ocean acidification and its effects, the “other CO2 problem”, we emphasise that most experimental work on a variety of calcifying organisms has shown that under increased atmospheric CO2 levels (which attempt to mimic those of the future), and hence decreased seawater CO3 2-ion concentration and carbonate saturation state, most calcifying organisms will not calcify as rapidly as they do under present-day CO2 levels. In addition, we conclude that dissolution of the highly reactive carbonate phases, particularly the biogenic and cementing magnesian calcite phases, on reefs will not be sufficient to alter significantly future changes in seawater pH and lead to a buffering of the CO2-carbonic acid system in waters bathing reefs and other carbonate ecosystems on timescales of decades to centuries. Because of decreased calcification rates and increased dissolution rates in a future higher CO2, warmer world with seas of lower pH and carbonate saturation state, the rate of accretion of carbonate structures is likely to slow and dissolution may even exceed calcification.

The potential of increasing nutrient and organic carbon inputs from land, occurrences of mass bleaching events, and increasing intensity (and perhaps frequency of hurricanes and cyclones as a result of sea surface warming) will only complicate matters more. This composite of stresses will have severe consequences for the ecosystem services that reefs perform, including acting as a fishery, a barrier to storm surges, a source of carbonate sediment to maintain beaches, and an environment of aesthetic appeal to tourist and local populations. It seems obvious that increasing rates of dissolution and bioerosion owing to ocean acidification will result in a progressively increasing calcium carbonate (CaCO3) deficit in the CaCO3 budget for many coral reef environments. The major questions that require answers are: will this deficit occur and when and to what extent will the destructive processes exceed the constructive processes?

That is a long abstract! The whole paper is available.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 06:20

Interesting chart re acidifying seas and CO2 emissions:


Atmospheric CO2 rising from us burning fossil fuels. pCO2, “partial pressure of CO2” which you can read as dissolved CO2 and of course as pCO2 rises pH is dropping.

Deniers hate the term “acidification” but that is what is happening when pH drops. Saw the term “dealkalization” used in Twitter just now :rofl :rofl It is to do with the increase in H+ ions as they increase the pH decreases = become more acid.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 05:44

brad schrag Retweeted

Jamie Wilson @jamieswilson 4h4 hours ago More

Replying to @sueytonius @Tangomitteckel and 48 others
Accelerating species extinctions✅
Oceans warming✅
Red tides✅
Dead seas✅
Increasing coral reef bleaching✅
Arctic & glacial melting✅
Increased risk to food productivity✅
Loss of soil biomass✅
Dying high montane forest✅

Dead seas—increasing areas in oceans where the seawater is markedly deficient in oxygen. Means no fish there, naturally. E.g. see

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 04:34

Ahahaha seems Tassie is getting hit by some stronger than usual winds.

We had some Arctic air hit the east coast, bringing snow to as far north as south Queensland a year or two ago.

Sign of an ice age, of course :roll :roll :roll

I think it is a consequence of the weakening, slowing, chaotic Southern Jet Stream (due to AGW and Polar Amplification of it.) Seems Antarctic air and weather systems can reach us more easily because of that.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:33


Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 00:29

Deal :thumb

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:27

You can do that here next year :rofl :rofl :rofl

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 00:17

I DID? I was not aware. :buddy


Seems I drop in at propitious times. A synchronicity of sorts. :bgrin

Like I said... I DID post the 1,000 000 post on the Dr Who thread.... :bgrin

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 23:56

Where my block is no real big areas of trees, only really have to worry about grass fires.

Exception is the acres of wild ground full of gorse, grass, conifers, ti tree etc.

I will examine maps and next April will try and assess risks.

All the building blocks not built on have to be slashed early in summer.

BTW—you clicked us over 102,000 posts! Wheeeeeee and idiots like Agnes and AiA and BaronvonRatShit call this forum dead. Hah! Reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated!

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 16 Aug 2018, 23:42

I tend to be complacent about fire, because SEQ is usually , at this time of year, relatively green.

Not this year.
And, like I said earlier, this is still Winter.

Fire season has come early here, and totally understand why NSW is so at risk at the mo. This will spread to all other southern states.
I don't think it's going to get any better.
So I'd say PLANT NOTHING... and remove as much vegetation, green or not from around your home, as possible. If you can manage bare earth? do it.

Live to fight another day.

Now this may sound dramatic.... but this is the worst lead up to Summer I can say for at least 15 yrs. Of course it depends on where you live, and what rains you have received. The dryness of the flora. This IS a big country, BUT.....................

all I can really say to ALL AUSSIES, where-ever you live... GOOD LUCK this summer.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 23:32

No, just winter getting in a last grumble.

Last longer in Tassie I guess—have climate for my place, must compare to Adelaide, use spreadsheet, work out some stats.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 23:30

As I said, thinking about ways to protect against grass fires and possibly bushfires from the acreage across the road from my block (well, all the blocks in that bit of road.

No mulch bar rock mulch at the front and possibly in the flower/veg/herb patch between the fruit trees and my house. Metal blinds on windows at the front. Really a problem at the front. Make it as green as possible I suppose.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 16 Aug 2018, 23:27

It won't last mate.. especially not if you live in SA.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 23:21

We actually are having a bit of winter, rain and 14°C maxima.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 16 Aug 2018, 22:38

A grim prospect indeed.
all our own work. :sad

It was 30 degrees here today. Winter isn't over yet.!!

Yesterday there was a wildfire just down on the main road in and out of the Village. Some arsehole probably threw a butt out the window.

This fire season is shaping to be the worst ever.
I am not looking forward to summer.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 19:47

Antarctica boosting sea level rise:

The melting and the sea level rise can only get worse.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 06 Aug 2018, 20:10

Earth's Soil Is Hyperventilating Thanks To Climate Change
Earth's soil contains roughly twice as much CO2 as Earth's atmosphere — and it's escaping faster and faster.
Credit: Getty
You know it's hot out there when even the soil is hyperventilating.

According to a new study published yesterday (Aug. 1) in the journal Nature, there's about twice as much carbon dioxide (CO2) stored in Earth's soil as there is floating around the atmosphere, and for the last few decades, that underground greenhouse gas has been leaking out at a significantly increased rate.

Based on more than 2,000 sources of climate data taken from ecosystems around the world, a team of soil scientists found that the rate of CO2 released from Earth's soil has increased globally by about 1.2 percent in just 25 years — and you can blame that on hot, hungry microbes.

"We're talking about a huge quantity of carbon," study co-author Vanessa Bailey, a soil scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington state, said in a statement. "Microbes exert an outsize influence on the world that is very hard to measure on such a large scale."

The breathing Earth
Dirt doesn't actually breathe, of course, but it sort of looks that way when tiny, underground organisms help release the CO2 stored in plant roots, dead leaves and other natural detritus. Hungry microbes gorge on the tasty carbon stored in this plant matter, and then release carbon dioxide as a natural byproduct of this feeding, just as you do when you exhale after a deep breath.

This process is known as "soil respiration," and it's an important complement to photosynthesis — the process by which plants turn CO2, water and light into energy — helping to keep ecosystems around the world running smoothly.

But lately, researchers have found that as global temperatures rise, microbes in the soil have been releasing CO2 faster than plants can snatch it up again. Previous studies have indicated that tree roots and certain microbes both respire more frequently at higher temperatures (up until a certain point, when the intense heat causes the organisms to stop functioning completely). But the exact effects of that increase in respiration had never been studied on a global scale until now.

To better understand the potential links between rising global temperatures and soil respiration, a team of researchers led by Ben Bond-Lamberty at the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, examined data from two huge global nature surveys: the Global Soil Respiration Database and FLUXNET, which collectively draw soil, temperature, rainfall and other data from a network of more than 2,000 sources across several ecosystems.

The data showed that the rate of global soil respiration had increased by about 1.2 percent in the 25-year window between 1990 and 2014. Most of that growth was due to increased microbial action; the tiny creatures in Earth's soil are freeing more and more greenhouse gases from our planet's surface.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 06 Aug 2018, 17:38

New Study Finds Sea Level Rise Accelerating
Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data.

This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise, according to lead author Steve Nerem. Nerem is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fellow at Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and a member of NASA's Sea Level Change team.

If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 -- enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. The team, driven to understand and better predict Earth’s response to a warming world, published their work Feb. 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said. "Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that's not likely."

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by HBS Guy » 30 Jul 2018, 05:16

Main problem is across the road, overgrown land, pines, gorse etc. Dunno if that gets cleaned before summer. Rest is just grass.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Post by pinkeye » 30 Jul 2018, 00:58

IF you don't have a dwelling there, then you might as well forget fire issues.
Of course you need to manage weeds and other woody stuff, but if there is no recent history of bushfire, in your area, there is NO point in worrying about it.

If you aren't THERE there is nothing you can do, and different choices of plantings are most unlikely to have any beneficial effect. No person?
Let it burn, and fix it up afterwards.