• Please remember that Politics, Off Topic and Global Warming boards are for fairly serious discussion. I would like to see language used in those boards reflect that level of serious discussion. Sand Pit, Members. Improvements—go your hardest.

Trigger happy Yanks

MilesAway

Bongalong
for those that have caught c-19

1 in 30 have died world wide
1 in 33 have died in Australia
1 in 9 have died in England
to try and say there isn't much chance of dying from this virus is just nuts
then you have all the ones that have been in hospital and looking like they will have life time adverse problems as well.

i guess when you say 97% chance of not dying it sounds so much better....
couple time's there has been 99% thrown around to :headscratcher3
Yesterday in Mexico it was like 660 deaths and 4500 new cases.

That's over 10 percent but it's an oversimplistic calculation.
 

hatty

cynical profane bastard
Hey mods hope you don't mind me posting this here.

Seth.......... just saw some footage of the forest fires in Oregon which i believe is where you live.

It looks like a shit storm and we know what it is like.

I hope everyone stays as safe as possible and want to wish you all the very best.
 

DonDeeHippy

Active member
Hey mods hope you don't mind me posting this here.

Seth.......... just saw some footage of the forest fires in Oregon which i believe is where you live.

It looks like a shit storm and we know what it is like.

I hope everyone stays as safe as possible and want to wish you all the very best.
hey hatty is you look at the politics aside thread Seth has been putting up pictures from his back yard of the smoke
 

hatty

cynical profane bastard
Thanks Don..... I shall keep that in mind for the future.

The sentiment remains the same as i grew up in the blue mountains so my thoughts are with them all
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
Hey mods hope you don't mind me posting this here.

Seth.......... just saw some footage of the forest fires in Oregon which i believe is where you live.

It looks like a shit storm and we know what it is like.

I hope everyone stays as safe as possible and want to wish you all the very best.
the mods all suck you off... hwy would they care?
 

hatty

cynical profane bastard
if you mean i get my rocks off because of my polite swearing......

what the actual fuck?...... and when you are sober..... it is spelled why
 
for those that have caught c-19

1 in 30 have died world wide
1 in 33 have died in Australia
1 in 9 have died in England
to try and say there isn't much chance of dying from this virus is just nuts
then you have all the ones that have been in hospital and looking like they will have life time adverse problems as well.

i guess when you say 97% chance of not dying it sounds so much better....
couple time's there has been 99% thrown around to :headscratcher3

DDH, I don't understand. This is not rocket science. With the exception of England, your stats are close enough. England is 1 in 7.5, not 1 in 9. If it were 1 in 9, the total deaths would only be 31,000. Currently it is 36,765 deaths. Therefore, 1 in 7.5.

The average mortality rate around the world, is around 3-4%. This also means that the survival rate on average, will be 96-97%. Right? So that percentage not only makes me feel better, but it is also true. How many Australians under 30 have died from covid-19? NONE. How many women in Australia, under 50 have died from covid-19? NONE. What is the average age of those dying from this virus in Australia? The median age for males at death is 78 years, and 84 for females. How many of the 6,000 people between 20-30 years with covid-19, have died? NONE How many people without pre-existing illnesses, or a compromised immune system, and are under the median age, have died. NONE. So, here's another percentage based on facts. If you are under 40, with no other underlying medical conditions, you have a 100% chance of surviving. Unless you have some stats that disproves this assertion? Not simply a few exceptions.

If we take the total number of people in the population(Australia), and divide that into the total number of people infected, we will see what your chances of becoming infected are. Therefore, taking 26,565 total cases/26,000,000 total people, is equal to 0.1% of the population. This means that 99.9% of the population are not infected, not yet infected, not confirmed infected. or don't know if they are infected.

So, do you now understand what the 97% and 99%, I was referring to mean? So, yes it is extremely unlikely that you will die from covid-19, if none of these pre-existing medical conditions exists. The facts clearly demonstrate this. So yes, I say a 97% survival rate, because 97% of those infected are surviving. And, Yes, I say a 99% chance of not being infected, because so far, less than 1% of the population IS infected. Even since Jan 22nd.

So, spare me the sarcastic editorials, and just stick to the facts.
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
Lol, facts :applause:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan:shithittingfan
 
for those that have caught c-19

1 in 30 have died world wide
1 in 33 have died in Australia
1 in 9 have died in England
to try and say there isn't much chance of dying from this virus is just nuts
then you have all the ones that have been in hospital and looking like they will have life time adverse problems as well.

i guess when you say 97% chance of not dying it sounds so much better....
couple time's there has been 99% thrown around to :headscratcher3

Why don't you say, that 29 out of 30 people in the world with Covid-19 will survive? Or, that 32 out of 33 in Australia with Covid-19 will survive? Why don't you peddle the overwhelming positive percentage of those surviving, instead of just parroting the government's tiny percentage of those who will die? I guess that having headlines like, "Hundreds of thousands around the world infected by this Pandemic..", or "hundreds in Australia left dead, from this killer virus...", will increase viewer ratings, and pander to the fears of the masses.

"Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf that to achieve its purpose, propaganda must "be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan. As soon as you sacrifice this slogan and try to be many-sided, the effect will piddle away.".

So obedience, choosing the right words, simplicity, repetition, slogans, and appealing to nationalism, are all the tools that are necessary to control the minds and actions of the masses. Are your freedoms worth so little to you? Does the future of a nation also mean so little to you?

You don't give a shit about those killing themselves through drinking, obesity, and smoking. But you are defending a government that is willing to turn your country into a welfare state, suspend your civil libertines and freedoms, track your movements, and end our Industries, and the financial futures of millions. All because of FLU-LIKE virus, whose complications have led to the death of a small percentage of our elderly, who were too weak to fight it.

Do you really think that these political leaders are doing it tough, in making these tough decisions? Of course not. These people are worth nothing, produce nothing, but they are still paid well in-spite of this. These people even have their own nonsense language, to justify their level of importance and accountability. And, as long as we stay apathetic and indifferent, we will always be their sheep.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
just because you're stupid enough to think covid is just another flu, that's not my problem. You know the rules as they stand. Don't break them unless you are willing to suffer the consequences.


is it? tell that to the 900 000+ people that have died from it. I'm sure you'll sound sane.


Whilst technically you didn't quote him, it is semantics. You referred to what Seth said as support for your argument ... just because you didn't quote him verbatim ..that you're still going on about it shows just what little substance you really have


the role of the moderator is not to hold your hand and read you bed time stories until you are ready to go to sleep. You're on the wrong board if that's what you want.



:OMG




you really need to wake up
Over 28 Million people across the world are now recognized as being Covid-19 positive.
So on reports.... tests, in other words.... 28 M. Likely to be X 4 to 12 that are unreported.

Remember that epidemiologists say this is about the actual numbers ..... from 4 <12 / 1 case , for unreported cases.

Numbers increasing daily just about everywhere.. The virus is now being seen in younger folk.... I guess it is changing.....

so 28 m X 4 ... at say 3% death rate, plus all additional ripples..??

what do you reckon the deaths will amount to? Given we are less than a year in..?? So

You're the stats whizz Shell.
How many will die from current information, across the world.?
 
Over 28 Million people across the world are now recognized as being Covid-19 positive.
So on reports.... tests, in other words.... 28 M. Likely to be X 4 to 12 that are unreported.

Remember that epidemiologists say this is about the actual numbers ..... from 4 <12 / 1 case , for unreported cases.

Numbers increasing daily just about everywhere.. The virus is now being seen in younger folk.... I guess it is changing.....

so 28 m X 4 ... at say 3% death rate, plus all additional ripples..??

what do you reckon the deaths will amount to? Given we are less than a year in..?? So

You're the stats whizz Shell.
How many will die from current information, across the world.?
You are right we are off topic, and I am NOT a stats whiz. Just a person with a rational mind, that lets the facts determine the reality. Not the biased mind. Since you didn't give me a time frame, I'll assume you mean at the end of the year.

I have already answered this question in one of the other covid-19 threads. Take the number of days from Jan. 22nd to Sept.13(234 days), for 917,000 people to die worldwide from covid-19(917,000 deaths). This becomes your rate of days to deaths. Now take the number of days left to the end of the year(108 days), and use the rate to determine how many more people will die during that interval(108 days). Then just add this number to the number of people already dead, and you will have your predicted total for the end of the year. So let's see what that means.

X = 108 days(Sept. 14th-Dec.31st) x 917,000 deaths(worldwide) / 234 days(Jan. 22nd-Sept. 13th) = 423,230 new deaths in 108 days. Add this to the current deaths, and the total will be 1,340,230 total deaths by the end of the year.

Provided that the 3-4% mortality rate is consistent, and the ratio of those infected and those not infected, also stays consistent. On average neither has changed much up to now.

But lets put this in more perspective. There are over 60 million people dying each year. This number is steadily increasing. By 2060, it is predicted that over 100 Million people will die each year. So, 1,340,230, only represents only 2.2% of the total deaths each year.

Again, just more hype, fear-mongering, half-truths, and disinformation. Give the gullible a problem, and they will listen to you. Make them feel that they are part of the solution, and they follow you. I thought we were better than this. Now I know that if the government tells you that if you want your freedoms back, then every Australians must download their tracking apps. And, there will be no shortage of mindless government stooges to enforce it for them. Especially those claiming, that we can't pick and choose what laws to obey, like good sheep.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
You are right we are off topic, and I am NOT a stats whiz. Just a person with a rational mind, that lets the facts determine the reality. ............. I'll assume you mean at the end of the year.

////////////////////Take the number of days from Jan. 22nd to Sept.13(234 days), for 917,000 people to die worldwide from covid-19(917,000 deaths). This becomes your rate of days to deaths. Now take the number of days left to the end of the year(108 days), and use the rate to determine how many more people will die during that interval(108 days). Then just add this number to the number of people already dead, and you will have your predicted total for the end of the year. So let's see what that means.

X = 108 days(Sept. 14th-Dec.31st) x 917,000 deaths(worldwide) / 234 days(Jan. 22nd-Sept. 13th) = 423,230 new deaths in 108 days. Add this to the current deaths, and the total will be 1,340,230 total deaths by the end of the year.

Provided that the 3-4% mortality rate is consistent, and the ratio of those infected and those not infected, also stays consistent. On average neither has changed much up to now.

But lets put this in more perspective. There are over 60 million people dying each year. This number is steadily increasing. By 2060, it is predicted that over 100 Million people will die each year. So, 1,340,230, only represents only 2.2% of the total deaths each year.

Again, just more ............................, like good sheep.
I can't be doing those calcs, so thanks for that. NOW I have signified your sentence, above, so indicated.

I mean in this time, NOW. You appear to be reaching forward 40 years to say only 2.2% deaths due. In total.

That is BS, Shell.
Reports of total deaths around the world from ALL sources, have increased significantly, due to Covid-19.

SO we have , lets round it up.. 1,500,000 . After all MANY are NOT recorded...

1.5 million people dead. (at the most conservative estimation) in LESS THAN A YEAR.

Yeah no worries...
 

DonDeeHippy

Active member
DDH, I don't understand. This is not rocket science. With the exception of England, your stats are close enough. England is 1 in 7.5, not 1 in 9. If it were 1 in 9, the total deaths would only be 31,000. Currently it is 36,765 deaths. Therefore, 1 in 7.5.

The average mortality rate around the world, is around 3-4%. This also means that the survival rate on average, will be 96-97%. Right? So that percentage not only makes me feel better, but it is also true. How many Australians under 30 have died from covid-19? NONE. How many women in Australia, under 50 have died from covid-19? NONE. What is the average age of those dying from this virus in Australia? The median age for males at death is 78 years, and 84 for females. How many of the 6,000 people between 20-30 years with covid-19, have died? NONE How many people without pre-existing illnesses, or a compromised immune system, and are under the median age, have died. NONE. So, here's another percentage based on facts. If you are under 40, with no other underlying medical conditions, you have a 100% chance of surviving. Unless you have some stats that disproves this assertion? Not simply a few exceptions.

If we take the total number of people in the population(Australia), and divide that into the total number of people infected, we will see what your chances of becoming infected are. Therefore, taking 26,565 total cases/26,000,000 total people, is equal to 0.1% of the population. This means that 99.9% of the population are not infected, not yet infected, not confirmed infected. or don't know if they are infected.

So, do you now understand what the 97% and 99%, I was referring to mean? So, yes it is extremely unlikely that you will die from covid-19, if none of these pre-existing medical conditions exists. The facts clearly demonstrate this. So yes, I say a 97% survival rate, because 97% of those infected are surviving. And, Yes, I say a 99% chance of not being infected, because so far, less than 1% of the population IS infected. Even since Jan 22nd.

So, spare me the sarcastic editorials, and just stick to the facts.
England 365,000 infected , 41,600 dead, divide those and you get 8.8 not 7.5

yup facts that all I posted....

all the rest of your post is just explaining away your version of them.....

Fact 1 in 30 have died that have caught C-30
Fact 1 in 33 have died in Australia
Fact 1 in 8.8 (for mr pedantic, but wrong anyway) in England

England has a better health care system then us, do we really want to take the chance of Covid infecting us as bad.

Think about it on the first wave we had 7000 infections and 100 deaths... the next one we are in is 19,000 infections and 700 deaths and still going.. I for one don't give a rats ass about 99.999 percent of the world infected rubbish rubbish.

I care that if Queenland get's a out break we could easily have a death toll like England with 1 out of every 9 infected dead... I don't want to have to say goodbye to friends and family yet because of C-19.....
 
I can't be doing those calcs, so thanks for that. NOW I have signified your sentence, above, so indicated.

I mean in this time, NOW. You appear to be reaching forward 40 years to say only 2.2% deaths due. In total.

That is BS, Shell.
Reports of total deaths around the world from ALL sources, have increased significantly, due to Covid-19.

SO we have , lets round it up.. 1,500,000 . After all MANY are NOT recorded...

1.5 million people dead. (at the most conservative estimation) in LESS THAN A YEAR.

Yeah no worries...
By 2060, it is predicted that over 100 Million people will die each year. So, 1,340,230, only represents only 2.2% of the total deaths each year.
I will admit that my statement sounds a bit ambiguous. This is why I said, "There are over 60 million people dying each year". This is the current rate of deaths per year. Therefore, the 2,2% represents the current number of deaths due to Covid-19 divided by the current number of death worldwide per year(1,340,230 covid-19 deaths/60,000,000 total deaths per year). If it were 100M deaths, the percentage would be 1.3%, not 2.2%.


This was your question,

what do you reckon the deaths will amount to? Given we are less than a year in..?? So
You're the stats whizz Shell.
How many WILL die from current information, across the world.?
Since we already know how many people are dead NOW, you could only be talking about a predicted number of deaths by the end of the year, based on the statement I highlighted. You asked me for MY prediction based on current information, and I gave it. And, even explained why.

But, if all you are going to do is call my efforts BS, then don't waste my time complying to your request. Just keep taking the government's Blue Pills, and stay blissfully ignorant, apathetic, and indifferent. So, other than having to lie to dismiss my fact-based prediction, what is your death prediction based on the current data? Is the world doomed by this unstoppable deadly virus killing everyone in its path? Or, is it whatever the government, and it media lackeys tell you it is? Does this flu-like virus justify forcing the people to isolate themselves from each other? Or, to close down the country's economy and businesses? Or, putting almost a million people on the dole? Or, suspending the people's basic rights and liberties, and fining and arresting all those who don't comply? The answer should be a no-brainer, to any rational thinker.

Here are some more stats for the open-minded critical thinkers. There are 195 countries in the world, with around 10,000 cities. There are still 917,000 deaths in the world due to covid-19. This means, that on average, there are 4,702 deaths per country, and 91.7 deaths per city. This is obviously just an average for perspective only. Some countries will obviously have more deaths, and some with have less.

Also, if you are going to round off 1,340,230 deaths, you don't round up, you round down. It would be 1,300,000, and NOT 1,500,000.

http://www.webmath.com/k8round.html

My point was never to belittle or to be dismissive of the dead. My point was that 99.99% of the world's population(917,000 deaths/7,800,000,000 total population) should NOT be forced to loose their freedoms, their jobs, and their dignity. Just because of the government's knee-jerk reaction to the deaths of the other 0.01%.
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
You are right we are off topic, and I am NOT a stats whiz. Just a person with a rational mind, that lets the facts determine the reality. Not the biased mind. Since you didn't give me a time frame, I'll assume you mean at the end of the year.

I have already answered this question in one of the other covid-19 threads. Take the number of days from Jan. 22nd to Sept.13(234 days), for 917,000 people to die worldwide from covid-19(917,000 deaths). This becomes your rate of days to deaths. Now take the number of days left to the end of the year(108 days), and use the rate to determine how many more people will die during that interval(108 days). Then just add this number to the number of people already dead, and you will have your predicted total for the end of the year. So let's see what that means.

X = 108 days(Sept. 14th-Dec.31st) x 917,000 deaths(worldwide) / 234 days(Jan. 22nd-Sept. 13th) = 423,230 new deaths in 108 days. Add this to the current deaths, and the total will be 1,340,230 total deaths by the end of the year.

Provided that the 3-4% mortality rate is consistent, and the ratio of those infected and those not infected, also stays consistent. On average neither has changed much up to now.

But lets put this in more perspective. There are over 60 million people dying each year. This number is steadily increasing. By 2060, it is predicted that over 100 Million people will die each year. So, 1,340,230, only represents only 2.2% of the total deaths each year.

Again, just more hype, fear-mongering, half-truths, and disinformation. Give the gullible a problem, and they will listen to you. Make them feel that they are part of the solution, and they follow you. I thought we were better than this. Now I know that if the government tells you that if you want your freedoms back, then every Australians must download their tracking apps. And, there will be no shortage of mindless government stooges to enforce it for them. Especially those claiming, that we can't pick and choose what laws to obey, like good sheep.
...you're obviously not a stats wiz: a 2 year old kid could tell you that you're corrupt :gun swirl
 
Top