Record warm Arctic

HBS Guy

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Image not too big! Must be something on the DMI site causing it not to load directly from there?
 

HBS Guy

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Record November warmth in Svalbard
The Arctic fox is waiting for a delayed winter. 9.4 °C measured at the weather station in Reindalspasset just after midnight on November 12.
Read in Russian | Читать по-русски
By
Thomas Nilsen
15
November 12, 2020
“It is the highest temperature officially recorded in Svalbard during November,” says Climate Scientist Ketil Isaksen with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in a tweet.



At Longyearbyen airport, the peak temperature last night reached 9,2 °C for a short period, nearly two degrees warmer than the last November record measured in 1975 when the thermometer reached 7,5 °C. Historically, average November temperature for Longyearbyen is a low of -10,1 °C and high of -5,1 °C.
The sun is now under the horizon for a Polar Night that last until early March.
Last night’s heat follows a pattern of extreme temperatures for the European and Russian Arctic this summer and fall. Average temperature at the Russian archipelago of Severnaya Zemlya north of the Siberian mainland was as much as ten degrees Celsius warmer than normal in October.
In July, Longyearbyen at Svalbard had new heat record ever for the Norwegian Arctic with 21,7°C.
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Located at 78° North, Longyearbyen faces climate changes like few other towns. Houses are sagging as thawing permafrost makes the ground unstable. Until last winter, Svalbard counted 100 consecutive months with above normal temperatures.
The Norwegian meteorological institute explains the heat with the negative spiral caused by climate change. Less sea-ice and less white snow-covered land mean less of the sunlight being reflected back to space. Darker waters-surface and soil absorbs more heat, again accelerating the permafrost thaw and causes more sea-ice to melt.
If global emissions continue to increase like today, the annual average temperature at Svalbard will be above zero degrees by the end of this century, the meteorological institute predicts.
Some periods have seen 12-14 degrees over normal around Longyearbyen. The old saying about the “Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the world” is no longer valid.
Truth is, the Arctic warms at least 3 times faster than global average.

Longyearbyen airport. Photo: Thomas Nilsen
 

HBS Guy

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Can see that tongue of high anomalies down the Framm Strait and over the Svalbard Archipelago. No wonder Svalbard set a new record high temperature! In the DMI graph:



You can see how Arctic temperatures stayed above the 0°C line for rather longer than the 1958–2002 average. 0°C is the freezing point of water. However, seawater with its salt content freezes at -1.8°C (271°K) so you can see refreezing was delayed by the exceptionally high temperature there.
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
I believe the IPCC is looking for 5 consecutive years... We've just had a very low 2019 and 2020 but apparently that can all be regarded as abberation!
 

HBS Guy

Head Honcho
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There will be no GSM this solar cycle at least, way too many sunspots for that. Not that a GSM would do more than cause some transient mild cooling anyway. The clowns that push this rubbish have no relationship with reality:

Temperatures last 2000 years.png

We see the change from MWP to LIA dropped global temperatures down about .2°C, the Maunder Minimum about the same and now we are a full degree Celsius from those temperatures. You could pretty much say temperatures were at -0.4°C for 1900 years and since 1900 they have risen to +1°C. A GSM just is nothing.
 

HBS Guy

Head Honcho
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As to sunspots—plenty enough we can say no GSM this solar cycle:

wolfjmms—Sunspot numbers to Oct2020.png

In a way it would be nice if there was a Maunder Minimum, keep things a bit cool for a decade or so, time to run out more RE, more mini nuclear, mandate EVs only by the end of that decade etc.

Sunspot numbers are the smoothed number of sunspots in a month (red line in the graph) so the peak solar scientists use is not the peak we would think of (e.g. look at 2012—solar scientists would say the peak number was after the nearly 150 sunspots in 2012.

Worse case—the sun might be heading back into a new solar maxima, boosting the warming from AGW with a bit more solar radiation!
 

MilesAway

Bongalong
Dmi temp is still "stagnant"? Like wtf is going on up there??

The anomaly graphs for 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days are all worrying and the end of NH Autumn is almost over.... The one day anomaly map has more red in it than yesterday: Don't worry, people are watching this bullshit unfold alright 🤔

🍿🍔🍔🍔🍔🍔🍔🍔🍔🍔😬
 

HBS Guy

Head Honcho
Staff member
You need to save the DMI graph to your PC then upload it. Doesn’t work by linking the actual graph—guess they have heavy traffic and disabled hot linking.

In comparison

In comparison the graph for 2010:
DMI Arctic temps 2010.png

Yes, very slow ice growth and even ice LOSS! This is unprecendented at this time of year, late November.

This is like 15°C warmer than average 1958-2002!

Temperatures are below the freezing point of seawater but by temperatures staying high the VOLUME of ice created remains below the average amount for Nov. So less ice in the Arctic at the start of the next melt season.
 

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