Covid-19 Revisit

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Shellandshilo1956

Active member
DonDeeHippy said:
no there are 28 million confirmed cases, 13 million recoveries and 15 outstanding cases.... you even said so just got the wrong conclusion......
I think you meant to say there are only 15 million people currently with C-19 ;)


That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths......
United States Coronavirus: 28,787,505 Cases and 511,685 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate. If this trend continues there would be 840,000 deaths,
More realistically would be a middle point of 2.3% which would be 650,000....
Of course it's just speculation, time will tell....

Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number....
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I have no idea why you are repeating what I've already said. But YES, there WERE 28M+ TOTAL confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US. This TOTAL number is made up of 13M people who have recovered and 15M people who are still infected. What is the difference in context, in saying that there are still 15M outstanding confirmed cases of Covid-19, or that there are 15M people currently with Covid-19? What exactly did you think I meant? And, what specific conclusion did I get wrong? Based on the mortality rate(500K people dead/28.2M people infected x 100% = 1.8%), we can EXPECT that out of the 15M still infected, that 14.7M people will recover. This leaves only 300K people still infected(less than 1% of the pop.), whose outcomes are undetermined yet. Which is what I said. What is the confusion?

Your mistake is making the massive assumption that of the 300K people left infected are ALL going to die. There are just too many variables that you seem to be ignoring(age, sex, core health, access to doctors and hospitals, etc.). I don't just assume that all 300K people will die, just to create panic, fear, and confusion, based only on my flawed conclusion. How do you know that 300K people will die from this flu-like virus? How can you just add 300K uncertain deaths, onto 500K certain deaths, and even call it speculation? There is a another method to determine the expected number of deaths from this virus. If it took 356 days(Mar2, 2020-Feb 21, 2021) for America to reach 500K deaths, then it should take 213.6 more days(7 months) to reach 800K deaths. If all the other factors remain constant(which they never do)!

Your other mistake is just a blatant logical contradiction. How can a mortality rate exist for people who have already made a full recovery from this virus? This is like saying a person can die from cancer, even after they have recovered from it. Either you have recovered from the disease, or you haven't. Both are easily testable. So, how many people have died from Covid-19, after fully recovering from it? One? That would give us a mortality rate of 0.00000005.2% for the 19M who have recovered. In other words, Buckley's chance of dying. So, lets see the stats!

Finally, there have been over 2.8M deaths each year in the US since 2017.(NOT 2M). In fact, in 2020 it is estimated that the death toll will reach over 3M(again not 2M) for the first time in the US. Using faulty logic, faulty data, and faulty conclusions, just to imply that Covid-19 deaths represents close to half of all deaths in America(800K out of 2M, or 40%), is just being intellectually dishonest, and socially irresponsible. It actually represents 15.1% of the total US deaths in 2020(500K / 2.8M + 500K x 100% = 15.1%).

So, just more of the same disinformation, for the gullible/ignorant.
 
pinkeye

pinkeye

Wonder woman
DonDeeHippy said:
Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was asked about assertions that the US coronavirus death toll seriously underestimates how many Americans have died in the pandemic.

Walensky noted that the pandemic is causing “excess mortality” from a number of causes, including delayed access to medical care.

The CDC director predicated that history books would record a US death toll from the pandemic that is “far greater than the numbers we have been counting”.
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Like I pointed out months and months ago..

the recorded numbers are likely to be anything up to 20% or more , under-reported.

Statisticians think it is so.. and who am I to argue. ?
 
S

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
DonDeeHippy said:
yet I never said that
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Here we go again, with the denials. So, you didn't say,

"That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths...... ".

Then you stated,

"Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number.... ".

All this information is wrong, and is based on false assumptions. And, then you used some appeal to authority to justify more false assumption? All based on speculation about the number of infections that have NOT been reported? Really? Maybe the aliens left it here before they left? You can make up any story you like, if no one can disprove it. I prefer that my conclusions be based solely on what we DO KNOW for certain. Not what we DON'T KNOW for certain.

"..of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate".

Where did you get this death rate for the 19 Million people who have recovered? Actually I did make a mistake. I didn't take into account the 500K people who have died from the virus. So lets look at the truth, shall we? All facts are as of the 23rd Feb. 2021.

The mortality rate, based on the facts that we DO know is 1.8%(512,767 people dead from Covid-19 / 28,829,173 total confirmed infected = 1.8% mortality rate).

The number of people still infected in the US is 9,202,260(28,829,173 total infected - 19,114,146 recovered - 512,767 died = 9,202,260 people still infected).

The number of expected recoveries would be 9,036,619(9,202,260 people still infected x 0.982 survival rate = 9,036,619 people expected to survive).

The number of people who will either live or die from the virus is 165,640 people(9,202,260 people still infected - 9,036,619 expected recoveries = 165,640 people who will die or survive).

Therefore, if it took 358 days(Mar 2nd-Feb 23rd) to reach 512,767 deaths from Covid-19, it will take another 191 days(6.3 months) to reach 800,000 deaths from this virus. If everything else stays constant. None of this is rocket science!

So, to sum up all your errors, and things you claim you never said or implied,

2m people do not die every year in the US. It been over 2.8M people since 2017. And will be over 3M in 2020.
There is NO mortality rate for survivors of this virus.
There are only 165,640 people in the US expected to live or die from this virus, NOT 300,000 people.
You don't just add the number of people expected to die from this virus, with the people who actually have died from this virus.
Speculations, suppositions, opinions, suspicions, and conjectures, only feed the imagination. They are no substitute for the facts.

Your are entitled to manipulate your own facts, but NOT your own logic.
 
DonDeeHippy

DonDeeHippy

Active member
Shellandshilo1956 said:
Here we go again, with the denials. So, you didn't say,

"That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths...... ".

Then you stated,

"Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number.... ".

All this information is wrong, and is based on false assumptions. And, then you used some appeal to authority to justify more false assumption? All based on speculation about the number of infections that have NOT been reported? Really? Maybe the aliens left it here before they left? You can make up any story you like, if no one can disprove it. I prefer that my conclusions be based solely on what we DO KNOW for certain. Not what we DON'T KNOW for certain.

"..of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate".

Where did you get this death rate for the 19 Million people who have recovered? Actually I did make a mistake. I didn't take into account the 500K people who have died from the virus. So lets look at the truth, shall we? All facts are as of the 23rd Feb. 2021.

The mortality rate, based on the facts that we DO know is 1.8%(512,767 people dead from Covid-19 / 28,829,173 total confirmed infected = 1.8% mortality rate).

The number of people still infected in the US is 9,202,260(28,829,173 total infected - 19,114,146 recovered - 512,767 died = 9,202,260 people still infected).

The number of expected recoveries would be 9,036,619(9,202,260 people still infected x 0.982 survival rate = 9,036,619 people expected to survive).

The number of people who will either live or die from the virus is 165,640 people(9,202,260 people still infected - 9,036,619 expected recoveries = 165,640 people who will die or survive).

Therefore, if it took 358 days(Mar 2nd-Feb 23rd) to reach 512,767 deaths from Covid-19, it will take another 191 days(6.3 months) to reach 800,000 deaths from this virus. If everything else stays constant. None of this is rocket science!

So, to sum up all your errors, and things you claim you never said or implied,

2m people do not die every year in the US. It been over 2.8M people since 2017. And will be over 3M in 2020.
There is NO mortality rate for survivors of this virus.
There are only 165,640 people in the US expected to live or die from this virus, NOT 300,000 people.
You don't just add the number of people expected to die from this virus, with the people who actually have died from this virus.
Speculations, suppositions, opinions, suspicions, and conjectures, only feed the imagination. They are no substitute for the facts.

Your are entitled to manipulate your own facts, but NOT your own logic.
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shell when you quote me out of context, no use conversing with you......
 
pinkeye

pinkeye

Wonder woman
so anyway

the virus has changed... apparently ( I won't say mutated 'cos Shell objects to that description).

There are 'variants' with different profiles. like the UK or South African strain, and there is no reason to expect these variations to cease.
So big pharma has a guaranteed cash cow for the foreseeable future.

Altho we are very fortunate in Oz, we can't get complacent. Seems just a day after saying all is good for travel btwn OZ and NZ.. now ..it is not . 14 days quarantine now in place due to transmission of virus amongst recent visitors.

I hear some morons are spruiking 'CRUISING' already.. anyone who can't wait to get back in a Petri dish have huge mental problems.
Fuckwits with too much money.. IMHO.

So.. the efficacy of current vaccines is very important.
 
S

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
pinkeye said:
the virus has changed... apparently ( I won't say mutated 'cos Shell objects to that description).
Click to expand...
A mutation in a virus, is an error that occurs in its RNA(or DNA), during replication(when it reproduces). Viruses with this mutated RNA(or DNA), are called "variants" of the original virus. So there is a difference. NOT because I just object to the word. The White Race itself was the result of a small mutation in the Black gene. As well as all other races.

The important thing is, is this new variant more or less dangerous than the original virus? All mutations are not always bad for the host. One mutation could be, that the variant can't replicate at the host's core temperature. This would be a positive mutation for the host. In either case, our immune system will still combat both non-mutagenic pathogens and mutagenic pathogens("mutagens"). This is its function.

pinkeye said:
There are 'variants' with different profiles. like the UK or South African strain, and there is no reason to expect these variations to cease.
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Simply saying that there are variants of this virus, and that there is no reason for this variant to cease, will only incite fear, confusion, and hopelessness. What is this variant's infection and mortality rates? What is its structure? How long does this strain last? ALL mutated strains are recessive(not dominate) and weaker than the original strain. Answers to these questions(and others) should also be included for perspective, context, and honesty.

I still can't believe that a simple micro-organism, that has infected only 21.8M(0.28%) people in the world(113,097,102 total inf. - 88,711,192 total recov. - 2,508,881 total dead = 21,877,192 total people still infected), with a tiny mortality rate, is being used to justify causing extreme misery and despair for the other 99.7% of the world's population. Clearly, the media can make people believe whatever it wants them to believe. Especially, if they want to believe it anyway, and bugger the facts. The media has created its own Leviathan. And, people have just STOPPED asking questions.

pinkeye said:
So.. the efficacy of current vaccines is very important.
Click to expand...
Efficacy in this case, only means that the ends will justify the means. Or, create the need, to justify the feed. Vaccines can take from 20 - hundreds of years to develop. Even the flu virus vaccine took 10-15 years to develop. This novel virus vaccine was developed in only a few months! Really!! It requires 2 injections, over a short period of time. There are NO guarantees against infection(3 doses of Polio vaccine=99% immunity), the length of the immunity, or against any adverse side effects or deaths. You are just trying to trick your immune system, by bypassing 2 viral barriers, into believing that a real pathogen exists, and is invading the body? Well, the body is not so easily fooled, and can respond in unpredictable ways. Especially, when there was no need for an immune response at all. Hence why it takes time to develop an effective vaccine. I personally choose not to be just the human lab rats for big pharma. But that is just me, and I certainly could be wrong. But it is just NOT worth the chance, IMHO.
 
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DonDeeHippy

DonDeeHippy

Active member
Shellandshilo1956 said:
Is this what Australia has become? A fascist country, that charges pregnant women for inciting a lock-down protest on Facebook? We're better and smarter than this.

Pregnant woman accused of inciting anti-lockdown protest set to fight charge (msn.com)
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she broke the law, the alternative is America where it's Leader incites a riot and overthrow of the duly elected government and gets away with it....
That is what we don't want Australia to become...
Why does it matter to you she was pregnant, is that a get out of jail card....
 
S

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
DonDeeHippy said:
Why does it matter to you she was pregnant, is that a get out of jail card....
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It doesn't matter to me at all. Her being pregnant only highlights the absurdity of her arrest. And, the reasons behind her arrest. I know that you don't see anything wrong with throwing someone in jail, because they choose not to isolate themselves from others, and refuse to be forced to wear a useless mask. Or, to dare post on Facebook to ask others of similar views, to join her in protesting against the government's silly health directives. Clearly, this pregnant mother is a true criminal, and is a clear danger to herself, society, and the government. If this wasn't really happening, I would think that this was just another "The War of the Worlds" theatre hoax. But this is worse.

I have no idea how protesting against being arrested, jailed, and fined for NOT isolating yourself from others, has anything to do with trying to overthrow the government. Except, in your mind only. I guess if you protest against the Labor policies, that you would also be trying to overthrow the government. Right? What exactly did the protestors do, that demonstrated that they wanted to overthrow the government?

Do you even know what it means to incite a riot? Clearly not! Was there a riot at all? Of course not! Just more irrational fear-mongering, if you really believe that a few hundred people could ever overthrow the entire America government! Can't you even see the slippery slopes that this precedence creates? Please turn off that frigging television. Stop listening to all the sensationalism the news is spewing out.

In Australia, do people have the right to protest their grievances to the government, or not? Or, are people(like you) expected only to shut up and simply do whatever the government tells them to do, or accept the consequences for disobedience? Just like in other Fascist governments? If the government tells the people, that they all must wear masks in public or be shot on sight, would that be okay with you? Would you tell the victim's friends and relatives, that he/she broke the law, and we don't want to be like America? Should we start isolating babies from their mothers next? What about cars and the number of passengers? How about checking the occupants of your home?

Since you are only sheep, you can only think, and do whatever you are told by the government("Resistance is Futile"). But she is NOT a sheep, so she can thinks for herself, and can do what is right. I admire her. And obviously, she is not alone.
 
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Shellandshilo1956

Active member
pinkeye said:
umm you on the right topic.?



msn ? this is about Covid-19. Protest on Facebook.?

you are lost in the wilderness.
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Yes I am. No one is protesting against Covid-19. That would be incredibly stupid. What people ARE protesting against, through Facebook, or written on the "Goodyear Blimp", is the rationale behind the lockdown itself, and the damage that this is doing to Australia and its people. Also, at what point do the people stop controlling the government?
 
pinkeye

pinkeye

Wonder woman
The rationale behind the lockdown is self-evident. Where lockdowns are in place infections go down.

When they don't vote.

Yawn
 
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Shellandshilo1956

Active member
pinkeye said:
The rationale behind the lockdown is self-evident. Where lockdowns are in place infections go down.

When they don't vote.

Yawn
Click to expand...
Self-evident? No it is not! It is just a simple and childish conclusion, based on simple and childish assumptions. There is absolutely zero self-evident evidence, that can demonstrate a direct causal link between the lockdown, and a decrease in the numbers of infections. In fact, the data shows the opposite seems to be true. Also, since you are championing this simple and impractical solution, how about you start banning all tobacco, alcohol, and glucose(cane sugar)? Think about how many lives you could save, from the diseases that these drugs can cause. Diseases where a direct causal relationship really does exist!

The numbers of those infected will go down regardless of anything that we do. Why? Common sense! As more and more people are being infected in the population, and more and more people are recovering(or die) in the population, that would leave less and less people in the population able to infect others in the population. Hence fewer and fewer people will be infected. This is what the data is showing. This is what all viruses have down for the last 100 years(before any lockdowns). And, this is exactly what we are seeing.

I won't bother asking you to prove why the lockdown is self-evident, or why no other explanations exists. Even scientist can't do that. You do realize that this is NOT Australia's first pandemic? There were no lockdowns then.
 
SethBullock

SethBullock

Moderator
Staff member
@Shellandshilo1956 I have some disagreement with you about Covid, masking, vaccinations, and lockdowns. But I don't want to discuss all that. You're positions are locked in stone, and so are mine, so let's not.

What I wanted to say is that I found the arrest of that woman to be awful. But what really gets me is how the Australians, as represented on this board anyway, just shrug their shoulders and go along with it.

Obviously, the U.S. criminal justice system has its flaws. But when I first joined this site I recollect that @mothra posted a story about a woman who had endured being horribly and chronically abused by her husband/boyfriend, and one day he started threatening to rape her juvenile daughter. She stabbed him to death, and then tied his body to the back of a vehicle and dragged it away from their house and dumped it on the side of the road. She was tried for murder and abuse of a corpse.

She was acquitted of the murder charge, but here's what gets me. She was convicted of the Abuse of a Corpse charge and sentenced to prison for a year. !!!! Her life had been a nightmare, and then the justice system said, "OK, we couldn't get you for murder, but we're going to extend your nightmare by throwing you in prison for dragging his body away."

It was like the Australian jurisprudence just couldn't stand the idea of a woman defending herself and her daughter from a monster, and, one way or the other, she was going to be punished. And again, I get the feeling that Australians just shrugged.

"Well, that's the law" seems to explain anything to these people.
 
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